In its 2020 report, Risk, Resilience and Rebalancing in Global Value Chains, McKinsey Global Institute includes a graph plotting different types of ‘shocks’ and their potential to disrupt value chains around the world. It includes everything from trade disputes to man-made disasters to changes in regulations to financial crises.
 
On the graph, each shock is assigned a value according to how easy it is to anticipate and the amount of potential costs. At the very top of the cost axis, above ‘global military conflict’ is a plot point marked ‘pandemic’. Estimated to cost tens of trillions of dollars in damages, the only greater economic impact would result from disasters that have not yet occurred, such as a meteoroid strike or the eruption of a supervolcano.

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