Heightened geopolitical and logistics risks are making it difficult for companies to successfully navigate evolving global supply chain conditions while keeping customer and EBITDA growth goals intact. According to DP World, 82% of supply chain leaders view geopolitical disruption as a major risk, yet only a quarter feel fully prepared. Similarly, 74% of logistics managers believe geopolitical factors generate the most serious risks, a 2025 Reuters Events survey indicates. Although the critical importance of creating resiliency has gained momentum, it is not enough. Successful companies are realizing they must shift from reactive to proactive strategies because forward-thinking, predictive planning strategies will be integral to thriving in the new global environment. 

Geopolitical and Supply Chain Risks 

Strained international relations are weighing on global supply chains. The pandemic helped executives understand that supply chains are only as strong as their weakest links. A steady series of geopolitical events has disrupted the end-to-end supply chain: the seemingly endless Russia-Ukraine war, the Iran-backed Hamas invasion of Israel, and China’s threats against Taiwan. Supply chain chokepoints were cut off in the Suez Canal, courtesy of regional conflicts and Houthi militant attacks, while the Hezbollah electronic device explosions exposed supply chain vulnerabilities as well. In both cases, supply chains were disrupted, delayed, and negatively impacted, highlighting the need for resilience and predictive insights.

As armed conflicts subside and Middle East peace seems increasingly within reach, it may be tempting to assume that supply chains will soon return to normal. But the world will evolve quickly and significantly in the next decade, bringing dramatic change and impacts to global supply chains. China’s desire for world domination has been evident in its focus on Taiwan, Indonesia, and attempts to gain access to infrastructure and natural resources worldwide. Tariffs have caused supply chains to evolve at a rapid pace, and the United States has generated hemispheric ripples by seizing narcotics at sea, capturing Venezuela’s president, and pushing for Greenland’s annex from Denmark. Successful organizations will look forward, proactively plan, and pivot resiliently to thrive in these ever-changing conditions. 

Planning to the Rescue

According to a Gallagher Business Risk Evolution survey, two-thirds of business leaders say their organizations are operating in a far more volatile environment and are moving from reactive responses to proactive risk mitigation strategies. A focus on planning strategies is emerging as a top priority for executives who want to stay ahead of changing business conditions while successfully serving customers and growing profits. From efficient production schedules and MRP replenishments to predictive processes such as SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning) and advanced planning systems fueled by artificial intelligence, the best firms are pursuing appropriate strategies to stay ahead of the competition. 

Fundamentals Remain Integral to Success

Although often overlooked, strong planning fundamentals are essential to successfully navigating disruptions, and effectively balancing competing variables is at the core of those fundamentals. For example, a large building products manufacturer was experiencing service issues after the pandemic. Customers were considering taking their business elsewhere unless on-time delivery improved and lead times returned to reasonable levels. Planning was a focus with an emphasis on theoretical models and optimal service delivery schedules within the distribution center network but service continued to struggle at unacceptable levels. Executives re-evaluated the situation and recommitted to core planning fundamentals; the move helped improve service levels from 60% to 90% and shorten lead times on key product lines by more than 50%.

Several upgrades also were rolled out. First up was a software settings adjustment. The company used advanced sales predicting software that developed forecasts by site but without an adjustment, the exception processes were non-existent. The team combed data files that fed the software, adjusted settings and models, reviewed exception messages, and assessed forecasts for reasonableness before finalizing. In addition, the team rolled out best practice demand planning processes to include review by site, key customers, and overall, tweaking settings and forecasts as needed. The problem-solvers also incorporated feedback from a collaborative review with sales leaders, marketing, and other key stakeholders. Accordingly, forecasts aligned with customer needs. 

These forecasts fed the company’s ERP system, fueling production schedules and distribution plans. Although the organization used an advanced ERP system, most of the master planning process was completed in Excel with downloads from the MRP planning workbench. Thus, in a site with high-skilled production planners, the focus was on better utilizing the SAP system, looking forward to projected past due and managing exceptions to resolve bottlenecks before they arose. The team developed data analytics and alerts to transition from a reactive to proactive approach. In addition, the group rolled out capacity reporting so they could see resource gaps, reallocate, and increase capabilities in the bottleneck work centers. In the sites with newer planners, the team implemented internal best practices, cleaned up schedules, and upgraded toolsets. The same types of improvements were introduced with distribution and transportation planning processes as well as use of ERP and related systems. 

To stay abreast of changing conditions, the executive team emphasized the importance of the SIOP process. Sales leaders actively participated in demand planning reviews and brought insights and issues into the SIOP cycle. Operations leaders discussed capacity bottlenecks, hiring, upskilling, operational improvement priorities, and recovery plans. Project past due and strategies to mitigate issues were discussed weekly and key insights incorporated into the SIOP cycle. Distribution plans and their impact on freight were evaluated and compared with potential shortages, service policies, and alternative replenishment sites. The executive team aligned high level sales, inventory, operations, purchase, and distribution plans with the monthly SIOP cycle. Not only did service levels and lead times dramatically improve, but inventory turns and operational effectiveness also increased.

Advanced Planning Strategies

Given the level of change and evolution in the global supply chain, smart executives will go beyond the fundamentals and upgrade with advanced planning strategies and AI-fueled systems. Advanced planning (APS), crowd sourcing, supply chain visibility, predictive ETAs (estimated time of arrival), scenario planning with digital twins and predictive analytics, and dynamic routing and optimization strategies are becoming essential. Knowing where the puck is going is far more valuable than knowing where it went and reactively responding. 

Walmart, for instance, used advanced technologies to anticipate and prepare for the 2026 winter storm in advance. It used AI tools to combine sales history, weather projections, and real-time data to understand how consumers are likely to respond to severe weather conditions. The company fed these types of responses into its planning systems to determine the types of products to send, where to send them, and the routes most likely to remain open. AI models aligned forecasting, inventory allocation, and transportation planning around common scenarios. In addition, Walmart used advanced systems to simulate alternative paths and reroute essential supplies when primary routes were likely to close or be unsafe. These tools assessed multiple variables simultaneously including road status, weather radar, carrier availability, historical performance during similar storms, and the urgency associated with each shipment.

The Bottom Line

As global supply chains reshape and change with geopolitical and supplier evolutions, proactive companies will not just respond with agility and resilience, they also will depend on planning strategies to prepare and predict the future. Moving from reactive to proactive is gaining momentum as companies plan to leverage the opportunities to grow revenue and EBITDA during these turbulent yet opportunistic times. Forward-looking companies will pull ahead and capitalize on growth opportunities, knowing their planning strategies will ensure customer and operational success.

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Lisa Anderson is founder and president of LMA Consulting Group Inc., a consulting firm specializing in manufacturing strategy and end-to-end supply chain transformation that maximizes the customer experience and enables profitable, scalable, dramatic business growth. She recently released “SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning): Creating Predictable Revenue and EBITDA Growth,” an e-book on how to better navigate supply chain chaos and ensure profitable, scalable business growth. A complimentary download can be found at www.lma-consultinggroup.com/siop-book